OCTOBER 11 2025 | By Steven Wieting & David Bailin
Quick End to Détente. The Same for Speculative Fever?
- Markets dropped 3% Friday on tariff threats, but fundamentals tell a different story.
- Actual tariff collections are running 64% below estimates, and we expect negotiated settlements rather than sustained escalation.
- While small caps have surged on speculation, we see better opportunities in profitable mid-caps trading at significant discounts.
- Three companies now represent $12.3 Trillion—equal to all of Asia or Europe combined—making diversification essential.
- Despite near-term volatility, we remain focused on an adaptive economy and broadening profit growth heading into 2026.
#3 CIO Insights for the week ahead
#1
Will Market Speculation Cool As Détente With
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Will Market Speculation Cool As Détente With
China Ends?
Markets plunged on Trump's tariff threat, but actual collections fell 64%. Why supply chain disruptions matter more than tariffs themselves.
#2
The Rally in Small Caps Overshadows the Better
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The Rally in Small Caps Overshadows the Better
Opportunity in Mid-Caps
#3
Concentration Risks vs. Broadening Profits: An
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Investors Conundrum
Source: Haver Analytics CIO Capital Group LLC is an SEC-registered investment adviser. This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investing involves risk, including potential loss of principal. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For additional information about CIO Capital Group LLC, see our Form ADV Part 2A at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.